Forecasting Maternal Mortality Ratio of India based on the Impact of Gross National Income
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Abstract
Background: Many women in reproductive age-span succumb to complications during and following pregnancy and childbirth or abortion. Gross National Income affects the MMR by directly relating to the social factors. Previous and projected reductions in maternal mortality of India and the impact of gross national income were not examined. The present study plans to compare maternal mortality of previous years and forecast the next 5 years of the same mortality based on the influence of Gross National Income by using Double Exponential Smoothing Model. Method: In this study, secondary data on the Maternal Mortality Ratio of India from 2001-03 to 2018-20 have been compiled from the Sample Registration System. Also, gross national income record from 1990 to 2020 data was mined from World Bank national accounts and OECD National Accounts data files. The time series approach Double Exponential Smoothing model was applied for forecasting. Minitab version 22 was used in the analysis. Results: The results revealed that MMR of India was statistically different in past years and there was a significant negative correlation between MMR and GNI (-0.95, p-value = 0.01). All Results are significant at p<0.05. A double exponential smoothing model (DESM) was fitted for the best forecast with MAPE (%) = 2.47. Conclusions: GNI had an impact on lowering maternal mortality, which caused the predicted maternal mortality to steadily decline. The Indian government should use GNI to reduce MMs at a high level, support pregnant women, and improve the health care system.
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Copyright (c) 2025 Divya Sharma, Dr. Pooja Soni, Dr. Utkarsh Khare, Dr. Ajit Singh Solanki
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